New coalition formed: prepare for crisis

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After 4 weeks of ‘tireless’ campaigning, almost 50 days of ‘intense’ negotiations and ‘late night’ meetings, a new coalition has been formed. It will be composed of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, together with the Regional Independent Group and the Healy-Raes. And it has just released their draft programme for government, Securing Ireland’s Future

We rejoice at the news that our ‘tireless’ heroes managed to find a ‘challenging’ compromise, just in time to be ‘ready’ for Trump’s inauguration. Ireland’s future is now secured!

And yet… truth be told, listening to the press releases and flicking through the government’s draft programme, we can’t help but be reminded of the words of the poet: 

Mountains will labour: what’s born? A ridiculous mouse!

Emerging threats

An editorial piece in the Irish Times put it quite aptly, the government’s programme “appears caught between business-as-usual from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and [vague] promises to do things better.” 

They made definite statements only when it came to ditching even the semblance of so-called Irish “military” neutrality, and attacking the Palestine movement by conflating criticism of Israel with antisemitism (i.e. the infamous IHRA definition). For the rest, the government promises nothing more than a “vague, contradictory wishlist.” But given their track record we find all of this hardly surprising. 

What is surprising is what the government is not talking about. The elephant in the room, or rather in the Oval Office:

 “To achieve even a portion of what is promised, the public finances will need to remain healthy, which is far from guaranteed,” laments the Irish Times. “Hard choices lie ahead, particularly given the emerging threats to Ireland’s economic model, but you wouldn’t know it from the document.”

Trump (aka the “emerging threat”) is back – and he means business. His threats about trade tariffs, bringing back jobs to the US, and so on, risk unravelling world trade. The consequences for the Irish economy and exchequer could be disastrous, and hang like a Damocles’ sword over any future decision taken by the Dáil. And yet, “you wouldn’t know it from the document”! 

Of course, Micheál Martin and Simon Harris understand the threat coming their way, but fear even more the electric mood existing in society and what even just mentions of the word austerity would trigger.

The point is that, precisely at this time, the ruling class would need a strong government to weather the coming storm. Instead, all they were able to muster is this mouse of a coalition. Led by two parties discredited by 16 years of crisis, on the smallest mandate in their history, and in coalition with all sorts of weird and wonderful independents. 

Mix this with the turbulent period ahead, and you will obtain the perfect recipe for a government of crisis from day one.

Establishment discredited

Over the last 6 weeks, the destiny of the country lay in the hands of Michael Lowry, lead negotiator for the RIG. To be sure, corruption runs like a thread through the history of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. And yet, Michael Lowry was so corrupt that even his peers were forced to shun and expel him from Fine Gael! 

Now he’s the kingmaker of the country. One could hardly imagine a more fitting metaphor for the parasitism of Irish capitalism.

With such premises, it is unsurprising that the government managed to cause the first scandal even before they got voted in. In order to get the coalition going, FF and FG engaged in outright bribery of the RIG. They gave out a record number of junior ministry positions, and pushed up the pay of super-juniors to a record €200,000. 

But the reality is that no amount of bribery will give the government the stability it needs. The fact that FF and FG were not content with the RIG, but also sought the support of the Healy-Raes to beef up the numbers, betrays their nervousness. Independents are a less reliable coalition partner as a pliant smaller party – and even a majority of 17 risks being quickly depleted if the proverbial shit hits the fan

The last time independents were in government, all the prominent ones lost their re-election bid. Barry Heneghan, TD for Dublin Bay North, came under fire for his decision to join the government even before the cabinet was voted in. The move by members of the RIG to behave as if sitting in the opposition benches shows they’re already preparing to jump ship if their position becomes difficult. FF and FG are not in for an easy ride.

Class Struggle 

All of this cannot fail to further discredit the government, the main parties, the political establishment, the Dáil, and – increasingly – all the institutions of capitalist Ireland, in the eyes of the masses. And it’s happening already at a time when confidence in the establishment is at a historical low.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael cheerfully celebrated after their ‘victory’ at the elections over Sinn Féin. But the coalition they have formed is not a sign of the strength of Irish capitalism, but on the contrary, of its anaemic weakness. 

Ground between the two millstones of US and European imperialism, Ireland stands to get the worst of both worlds in the coming transatlantic struggle. Under the hammer blows of the crisis the ground is being prepared for an explosion of the class struggle in Ireland.