In yet another sudden and sharp event, highly characteristic of the period of history we are living through, a surprise offensive by Syrian Islamist militants is fast unravelling Syria. Israel’s western-backed wars against Gaza and Lebanon have upended the fragile equilibrium in the Middle East and pulled a thread that has begun unwinding the fabric of the region.
Starting on 27 November, as a ceasefire was being implemented in neighboring Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel, the offensive launched by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) who control the northwestern governorate of Idlib, rapidly overran Aleppo – the country’s second-largest city – and as of yesterday, the strategic city of Hama. The city of Homs, yet another key city, is now under threat and could fall at any moment. This would leave the regime controlled coastal areas of Latakia split from the capital, Damascus, with a total collapse of the Assad regime a direct possibility. Syria is staring down an abyss of barbarism.
The ‘rebels’ are back!
Taking western media at face value, it is hard not to feel sympathetic for the armed groups they describe as the ‘Syrian Rebels’, formerly known as ‘the moderate rebels’, fighting the Assad regime. But this sanitised language obscures the true nature of these groups.
Whereas Hamas and Hezbollah are regularly described as ‘terrorists’, the term ‘rebel’ is deliberately deployed by the west to evoke a romantic image that serves to whitewash the origins and reactionary character of groups like HTS. After all, a rebel is someone who fights against oppression and injustice. In reality, however, these are nothing but jihadi cutthroats, set up by the precursor to the Islamic State and with origins in Al Qaeda.
But wait, you might think, where is the outrage? Where is the condemnation of this group? Where are the calls for democracy and human rights? Nowhere to be seen. Instead, since its offensive, western media has helped HTS launder its reputation, lauding the group’s ‘tolerance’ of Christians, its ‘diversity-friendly’ approach, even its promotion of garbage collection in the recently captured city of Aleppo! What also goes conveniently unnoted is the role of the West in nurturing these barbarians.
During the early years of the Syrian Civil War, the United States and its allies, including Turkey and the Gulf monarchies, poured billions of dollars into the Islamist militias who fought against the Assad regime. This was done at the time under the CIA’s $1 billion Syria program, one of the costliest in its history, funnelling arms and training to a variety of jihadist groups in the country. This program was only matched by the agency’s earlier ‘dollar Jihad’ in Afghanistan, where US support for the mujahideen laid the groundwork for the rise of the Taliban.
HTS, which is behind the recent offensive, evolved from Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda which was the biggest beneficiary of the CIA program. Its leader is Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, a man now trying to portray himself as a ‘moderate’ but who is every bit as reactionary as Osama bin Laden and former IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
Jolani’s Islamist career took off as a member of the Islamic State of Iraq – an early precursor to IS – before he broke ranks with his Iraqi counterparts to establish Jabhat al-Nusra under the direct command of al-Qaeda. Later, seeing an opportunity to attract western and regional support, Jolani proposed to publicly sever ties with al-Qaeda, while swearing a secret oath of allegiance to the organisation. It is reported that Al Qaeda rejected this proposal, but we can never know.
Meanwhile, Jolani went ahead with rebranding HTS as a more nationally focused Syrian entity with no desire to spread his brand of Islamism to other countries. This was merely a tactical maneuver; it reflected a broader strategy to make HTS more palatable to western powers. As funds and arms poured into Syria from the US and its allies such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, groups like Jabhat al-Nusra adapted their rhetoric to suit their benefactors. While publicly disavowing ambitions, however, beyond Syria’s borders, the group remains a jihadist organisation committed to theocratic rule.
By pouring petrol into the flames of the Syrian conflict, the West and its allies spread the seeds of barbarism throughout the region. The West’s strategy of “controlled chaos” not only failed to achieve its objectives but also unleashed forces that escaped its control. The rise of ISIS, the proliferation of jihadist factions, and the mass displacement of millions are direct consequences of this intervention.
By 2018, however, the intervention of Russia with its air superiority, and Iranian-aligned groups including Hezbollah had produced a stalemate, which saved the Syrian regime and left the jihadist groups isolated in the Idlib province along the Turkish border. Controlling all the main avenues of supplies in and out of the province, Idlib in essence became a Turkish protectorate and HTS a predominantly Turkish controlled proxy.
Alongside Turkey and with its permission, the CIA would have undeniably maintained contact with certain militant front groups formerly used to transfer funds and arms to HTS. Turkey has, furthermore, established a string of military outposts in the region, defending it from attacks from Assad and Iranian forces.
While Turkish president Recep Tayyib Erdogan has been publicly cautioning against events in Syria, there can be little doubt that the current offensive has been prepared and coordinated by Turkey. The modern arms, drones, and logistical support reveals a level of organisation that would be impossible without direct Turkish involvement. Moreover, Turkey’s ability to control cross-border trade and supply lines ensures that HTS remains dependent on Ankara for its survival.
It is no secret that Erdogan, who has never been shy of flirting with Islamic fundamentalists, has long wanted to expand his control over Syria. This is part of his grand ambition of an Ottoman revival stretching Turkish control over all of Northern Syria and Northern Iraq. Aleppo is a key element in this plan, which also includes Mosul and the Northern Kurdish areas in Iraq. Furthermore he has long wanted to ethnically cleanse the Kurdish areas of North Eastern Syria where a Kurdish PKK linked organisation maintains power. As these lines are being written, another offensive by Turkish proxies towards the Kurdish city of Manbij is already underway.
While Turkey is undoubtedly behind the present operation it would be foolish to imagine that the CIA and Mossad would have been unaware of the preparations for an offensive. In fact, it is more likely that they have given their approval to it. In the past days, Israeli forces have kept the pressure on Hezbollah in Lebanon – a key Assad ally – with more than a hundred bomb raids on the group, as well as targeting cross border activity between Hezbollah and Syria. In essence they have been targeting the Assad regime’s supply lines in support of the onslaught of the Jihadis.
The Assad regime: a hollowed-out state
At the same time, the rapid fall of Aleppo and Hama underscores the weakened state of the Assad regime. It reveals a regime which has been entirely hollowed out and which can only sustain itself through external support from Iran and Russia. This dependency highlights the extent to which Syria has been ruined by over a decade of war.
Before the conflict, Syria was among the most advanced societies in the Middle East. Having eradicated capitalism in the 70s through a peculiar string of circumstances, it achieved high levels of industrialization and modernisation as well as high levels of culture and welfare that set the country apart from most of its neighbors. Even with the return of capitalism in the 1990s many of these achievements remained. But western fueled civil war erased all of these gains and more.
The human cost of Syria’s conflict is staggering. Over half a million people have been killed, and millions more have been displaced. The fabric of Syrian society has been torn apart, with communities divided along sectarian lines and entire generations growing up in the shadow of war.
The country’s GDP contracted by over 60 percent from 2011 to 2021 alone. Unemployment exceeds 50 percent. Infrastructure such as roads, schools, and hospitals has been destroyed. Over 90 percent of the population lives below the poverty line, surviving on less than $2 a day. Hyperinflation, exacerbated by U.S. sanctions and a banking crisis in neighboring Lebanon – also caused by US sanctions –, has plunged millions into destitution. According to a 2023 survey, around 11 percent of families reported that their children were engaged in labor in the Aleppo area alone, primarily due to insufficient household income.
Underscoring the level of decay, the production of Captagon, an amphetamine widely used during the war, has now become one of the regime’s main sources of income. Corruption is rampant, and a mood of frustration prevails among the population. This is the reason for the ease with which the jihadis could cut through major cities like Aleppo, which was fought over for years during the civil war.
A large part of the population is simply so demoralised with the regime that it no longer cares whether it stays or goes. This is the direct opposite of what happened during the civil war, where the majority of the population swung behind the Assad regime to oppose the jihadi lunatics. Thus the Assad regime to a certain extent has become a phantom relying on its Russian and Iranian patrons to maintain itself. Of particular importance here is Hezbollah, whose elite units played a key part in fighting the jihadi opposition in Syria. But most of these have been transferred to Lebanon to fight Israel in the past year.
Equilibrium breaks down
The US invasion of Iraq and the destruction of the Iraqi army, along with the failed US intervention in Syria which spawned the likes of Jabhat al Nusra and Islamic State, ultimately led to a new status quo in the Middle East, one where Iran rose to be the strongest regional power.
Iranian linked militias such as Hezbollah in Lebanon gained popular support as they were seen as the only ones fighting against the imperialists and the jihadis. Spanning from Iraq, through Syria to Lebanon, these battle-hardened militiamen numbering in the hundreds of thousands became a force to be reckoned with. In fact, in the fight against Islamic State in Iraq, they became the most viable force the West could rely on.
In Syria, Iranian revolutionary guards, Iraqi militias, as well as Hezbollah came to the aid of the Assad regime. Their position was further consolidated after Russia entered the Syrian civil war on their side. The Russian-Iranian alliance ultimately managed to defeat the Jihadi opposition, and consequently the western intervention in Syria.
Turkey, meanwhile, played both sides of the conflict. Seeing which way the wind was blowing in the Syrian Civil War, Turkey – which was once a key player in the US intervention – switched sides, forging an alliance with Iran and Russia, an alliance which saw the US further decimated.
For Russia, Syria became the main bridgehead into the region and a critical point of influence in the Eastern Mediterranean. For Iran, the country came to serve as a vital link in its “Axis of Resistance”, connecting Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Thus, in the rubble left behind the western interventions in Iraq and Syria, a new equilibrium was established in the region by Iran and its allies, who came out on top. US imperialism begrudgingly had to accept the new state of play as its own power and influence waned. This was something that America’s allies, and in particular Israel, could not afford.
With the relative weakening of Hezbollah by Israel’s war, however, this is now being upended. And it is here that Israel comes to the aid of the jihadis.
In The Times of Israel, a revealing article called ‘Syrian rebels appear to credit Israeli strikes on Hezbollah with aiding shock advance’ brings us the truth from the horse’s mouth:
“‘Nobody knows if Iran and the regime would have been weakened without the recent Israeli attacks in Syria, which have allowed us to return and free the lands and the country,’ a man described as an opposition activist from the Aleppo area told Israel’s Kan public broadcaster in comments aired Sunday. Israel has for a long time carried out periodic strikes against Iranian targets and weapons transfers in Syria.
“Another rebel figure from the Idlib area who spoke to the network thanked Jerusalem and said the opposition was ‘very satisfied’ with Israel’s actions against Hezbollah and other Iran-backed players. Hezbollah is avowedly committed to destroying Israel.
“‘They accuse us of cooperating with you because we were quite happy when you attacked Hezbollah, really happy, and we’re glad that you won,’ the source said.”
Israel’s western-backed wars against Gaza and Lebanon, along with US imperialism’s desperate attempt at maintaining its predominance in the Middle East, have indeed created the fertile ground for the islamists to rear their ugly heads once again.
As a consequence, all the reactionary crap which was kept in check by the equilibrium is also coming back. Seeing Iran distracted in Lebanon and Russia distracted in Ukraine, Erdogan saw his chance to establish new ‘facts on the ground’, supporting HTS to take up arms once again against the Assad regime. Their march on Damascus is now rapidly changing the makeup of the region, with far reaching consequences.
It is testament to Israeli and Western imperialism’s filthy cynicism that they are again tacitly supporting the onslaught of the jihadi gangs because they see it as a blow against their main enemy, Iran. Nevermind that this could unravel Syria and destabilise the whole region in the meantime.
New world order
With the US and Israel lining up behind the islamists, Russia and Iran are scrambling to save what they can of the regime and of their own interests in the country. China has also declared its support for Assad. The outlines of yet another conflict are being drawn with US imperialism and its allies on one side, and the block of Russia, China and their allies on the other.
The post-Soviet world order, with the US as the sole superpower of the planet, is breaking down, and Washington is being challenged by the men in the Kremlin and in Beijing. But this new balance of forces is also opening the way for other countries, such as Turkey, to balance between these two blocks so as to buy themselves more room to manoeuvre.
Turkey is a NATO member. However, over the past years it has moved closer to Russia internationally and Iran on a regional level. While the West has sanctioned Russia, Turkey has been profiting from trade deals with Moscow, including deals that would help the Russians circumvent western sanctions. After the civil war in Syria, the Turks agreed with the Russians and Iranians to push the West out in a joint effort. Now, however, the pendulum is swinging the other way again. Seeing his chance, Erdogan is extracting concessions from the US in the form of support for his campaign to take a bigger slice of Syria.
Socialism or Barbarism
For decades, the imperialists have been ravaging the Middle East, and at every turn they have pushed it further down the path of barbarism. They have turned this once flourishing cradle of civilization into a barren wasteland full of pain, horror and suffering. Israel’s wars are no exception. Now they threaten to spill over and destabilise one country after another, opening the doors for a regional conflagration with the most devastating consequences.
The idea purveyed in the West is that the Middle East needs the civilising intervention of western powers, lest it fall into fanatic Islamic fundamentalism. In reality, western imperialism and its allies are the ones responsible for all the misery that the Middle Eastern masses are forced to endure. Were it not for western support, the rabid jihadi dogs could not have survived a single day.
What stands out most clearly in this region is the essence of capitalism: the narrow interest of a few capitalists at the top of society, above the interest of the mass of humanity. It reveals a class that is not only unfit to rule, but whose rule is diametrically opposed to civilised life.
