Last week, US President Donald Trump stepped in to impose his 20-point peace plan to end the genocide in Gaza. He is now proposing that Gaza be handed over to an American-led transitional authority, chaired by himself, with the assistance of the destroyer of Iraq, Tony Blair.
All the western and collaborationist Arab leaders are piling their hopes upon this peace. For them, they hoped it would quieten down the genocide enough to save their skins from the powerful, resurgent Palestine solidarity movements that threaten their downfall.
But for anyone who cares about Palestine, it is another atrocious crime against the Palestinian people.
Were this plan to work – and it is far from clear that it would – it would mean Gaza’s transformation into a colonial mandate dominated by America with Israel remaining perpetually in control of a ‘buffer zone’. All the vague talk of ‘a road to a viable Palestinian state’ and promises of investment for reconstruction are lies. This is a recipe, at best, for a permanently occupied refugee camp and consequently, permanent instability.
Gaza burns, the world catches fire
Israel’s brazen imperialist actions are destabilising the entire world.
In the Middle East, Israel’s Arab collaborators are petrified of their own populations, which are becoming restive at the slaughter of their Palestinian brothers. The ruling cliques of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and beyond are haunted by the spectre of revolution, particularly with the arrival of the Gen Z revolution in Morocco.
Meanwhile, in Europe, Palestine has become a lightning rod, drawing in all the accumulated discontent of the workers and youth.
Last week in Italy, workers and youth set the example by paralysing the country with a general strike, with millions out in the streets. In the same weekend, two million came onto the streets of Spain in protest of the genocide. The rulers of Europe – who have backed Israeli imperialism to the hilt from day one – are terrified by this reawakening of the working class around the cause of Palestine.
Trump, too, is acutely aware of the growing backlash against the genocide:
“They’re gonna have to get that war over with… Israel was the strongest lobby 15 years ago that there has ever been, and now it’s, it’s been hurt, especially in Congress.”
He has been in power for 10 months now and, despite calling himself a ‘peacemaker’, hasn’t ended either of the major conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine that he had originally pledged to resolve in weeks. This is all the more pressing because, just as his European contemporaries, Israel’s actions are creating domestic political problems for Trump. Even the MAGA movement is being polarised by the genocide.
America’s support for Israel has, until now, been ‘ironclad’. But while they put on a united front for the cameras, Netanyahu’s reckless behaviour – driven by his own political desperation – has been causing divisions behind the scenes. Not only has his support for Netanyahu been politically unpopular for Trump, it is now becoming clear that this conflict is rapidly eroding US influence in the region, and that is a big problem.
The assassination of Hamas negotiators at the US-led peace talks in Qatar was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Netanyahu could get away with striking Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and at the Freedom Flotilla in Tunisia. But Qatar is an American ally and home to the biggest US military base in the Middle East. Moreover, Trump was not asked but told by Israel mere minutes before the attack. Israel was also apparently plotting to do the same in Egypt.
Qatar is a rich but small country. It needs defensive alliances to protect its interests which it cannot do alone. It has played an important role for the Americans as an intermediary for negotiations and thought it could rely on US military backing. And yet, it has now been struck twice as a consequence of wars by an Israel backed by the US – the first time by Iran in retaliation for US involvement, the second time when Hamas negotiators were targeted.
With this attack, Israel called into question America’s reliability as the guarantor of the Gulf monarchies, as it has been since the Second World War. For if being an American ally doesn’t protect you from attacks from other American allies, why stay on ‘Team America’?
That is precisely the calculation of Saudi Arabia, which, since the bombing, has signed a defence agreement with Pakistan, which is dependent on China, which considers it a close ally. This comes only a couple of years after the Saudi-Iran deal in 2023, again brokered by China, again a shock for the US imperialists. Meanwhile, China has continued moving ahead with the construction of a military base in the UAE. Unable to rely on America or Israel, a string of formerly staunch US allies are looking for different points of support.
By recklessly pursuing wars across the entire region, Netanyahu is putting Israel first, above America. More precisely, he is putting his own interests first, as he needs these ongoing wars and provocations to keep the hardline far-right Zionists in his coalition. This is wrecking Trump’s plans for the Middle East. His ‘Abraham Accords’ were supposed to normalise Israel’s relations with American allies. Israel is alienating those allies, and thereby hastening the decline of US influence over the region.
That is one of the main reasons why Trump stepped in. Last week, Trump reminded Netanyahu who is boss. At a meeting at the White House on Monday, he got Netanyahu to sign on to his 20-point peace plan. He also made Netanyahu apologise over the phone to Qatar, and later signed an executive order to reiterate that any attack on Qatar would be “a threat to the peace and security of the United States.”
“Eternal peace”
It’s clear that, in private, Trump twisted Netanyahu’s arm into agreeing to all this. Trump intends to bulldoze this deal through against any objections from the Israelis or Hamas. Or, at least, he will try.
For all the Israeli tail has wagged the American dog over the last two years, Israel is dependent on American guns and money. Now that America has finally put its foot down, Netanyahu had no choice but to agree, or at least appear to agree. The subsequent press conference, in which Netanyahu stood beside Trump looking downcast and whipped, was described by one US official as “a hostage video”.
The 20-point plan for “eternal peace” was drafted by Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner – who has for a long time been eyeing up Gaza’s ‘waterfront property’ – and the Tony Blair Institute – which was also behind the ‘Riviera in the Middle East’ plan, which would have seen Gaza cleansed, demolished and rebuilt as a Dubai-style resort.
The plan stipulates that the war would end following the immediate release of all the remaining hostages, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Hamas would lay down its arms and go into exile, while Israel would partly withdraw.
Unlike the Rivera plan, the Palestinians would be allowed to stay. But they would be placed under the control of the ‘Board of Peace’, a ‘technocratic’ consortium of businessmen (with Muslim representatives, for “credibility”) chaired by Trump himself. As a cherry on top, the only other announced member of this board, which would have dictatorial control over the fate of Gaza, is the man responsible for British imperialism’s intervention into Iraq, Tony Blair.
Underneath this colonial-style mandate, the strip would be policed by an ‘International Stabilisation Force’ made up of soldiers donated from other Arab and Muslim countries. On the ground, it would be governed by a token, puppet Palestinian council. Eventually, in the vague and distant future, the strip would be handed over to a ‘reformed’ Palestinian Authority.
The plan was, naturally, negotiated without any Palestinian involvement. If Hamas refuses to comply, Trump was clear that they would “pay in hell”, and that he would give Israel whatever support it needed to “finish the job”.
For now, under enormous pressure from America and its Arab allies, Hamas and Israel are negotiating.
Hamas accepted the deal, with reservations including no mention of ultimately disarming. Apparently, they expected their answer to be taken as a ‘no’, which is how Netanyahu took it. Speaking to Trump, Netanyahu said of Hamas’ reserved acceptance that it’s “nothing to celebrate”. But Trump’s response shocked him. He reportedly replied, “I don’t know why you’re always so fucking negative. This is a win. Take it.”
Ignoring the finer details, Trump is plowing ahead. He praised Hamas’ reply as a step towards “long sought PEACE in the Middle East”.
On Truth Social, he’s been posting pictures of the massive ‘free the hostages’ demonstrations in Israel and repeatedly calling on Israel to immediately stop the bombing. This puts even more pressure on Netanyahu to comply.
However wise accepting the deal might be for Israeli imperialism – there are no military targets left to bomb in the Strip – its acceptance would be suicide for Netanyahu. Acceptance of this peace would represent a complete political defeat for Netanyahu’s government.
Netanyahu and those around him had long been talking about the permanent occupation of Gaza, the expulsion of the population and that there would never be a recognised Palestinian state.
This plan, on the other hand, would rule out the Israeli reoccupation of Gaza. It would invite Arab armies in to manage Gaza for the first time since the Six Days War in 1967 when it passed from Egyptian to Israeli control. Worst of all for Netanyahu, it would revive the idea of a Palestinian state, which Netanyahu has spent his whole career trying to destroy. After a costly two years of war, it would be a humiliating disappointment for his far-right allies and would almost certainly doom his government to collapse.
The so-called ‘liberal’ Zionists in the Knesset also know this. Less concerned with ‘peace’ and more interested in the damage being done to Israeli capitalism’s interests by the indefinite pursuit of the war, they are fully behind Trump’s plan. But they are well aware that Netanyahu has been dragging out this war endlessly for reasons of political survival, as once this war ends he will be out of office and may even end up in court on corruption charges.
Thus we’ve seen the liberals apparently offering him an ‘off ramp’. Benny Gantz has floated joining a coalition with Netanyahu. President Herzog has even suggested pardoning Netanyahu. Meanwhile, there is enormous pressure on Netanyahu from Israeli public opinion to accept the deal to secure the release of the hostages. He may not be able to tolerate the deal, but neither is it easy for him to outright reject it.
In fact, while Netanyahu put on a sombre face for Trump, on touchdown in Israel, he was straight out reassuring his base that the plan guaranteed there would be no Palestinian state and that IDF troops would remain “deep within the strip”. All the signs are that Netanyahu is just waiting for the first opportunity to collapse the whole ‘peace plan’. Over the course of the war, he has scuppered seven ceasefire agreements. He literally bombed the last peace negotiations! Nevertheless, he is under enormous pressure: from Trump, the Europeans, the Arab states, and from the liberals and public opinion at home.
It is quite possible that he intends to go ahead with the first phase of the plan, securing the release of the hostages, only to scupper it later. Indeed, he managed to adjust the 20-point plan, making the timetable for IDF withdrawal from the Strip even vaguer. The Arab leaders protested vehemently, but ultimately accepted given their desperate situation.
For Hamas, on the other hand, this deal would also be suicide. Hamas is expected to immediately give up all of its leverage – the hostages – in exchange for zero guarantees. What would stop Israel from assassinating these leaders once they had concluded a deal?
Even if Hamas’ political bureau in Qatar is pressured into concluding a deal, what is to say that the Hamas commanders on the ground – the ones in control of the hostages – will comply?
There’s clearly a deep division in Hamas. The leaders outside Gaza can agree what they want, but a new generation of young fighters on the ground inside Gaza – with nothing to lose and a burning hatred for the occupation – are far more intransigent. If they suspect a betrayal, after the enormous sacrifices they’ve made, there is nothing to prevent them splitting away and continuing a guerrilla struggle.
Even if Hamas formally agrees to give up its weapons, there’s no reason to assume caches of arms wouldn’t be placed in secret dumps, or that they would reveal the factories where they manufacture arms. In other words, there will be plenty of opportunities for Netanyahu to dive back in, if he so wishes.
The genocide continues
If neither side is prepared to accept defeat, the war will continue. Netanyahu could well find some excuse he can pin on Hamas to break the negotiations. Then, he will move to ‘finish the job’, backed by Trump. But by doing so, he will push Israel and its collaborators closer to the brink.
‘Finishing the job’ means sacrificing the hostages, and this question above all is tearing Israel apart. It means catalysing the eruption of revolutionary anger against all the accomplices and quartermasters of this genocide.
Trump, for his and US imperialism’s sake, wants this problem to go away. Ironically, however, through his peace efforts, Trump has entangled American imperialism further into Gaza. America being towed behind Israel into this manmade hell – either to ‘finish the job’ or as part of an ‘international stabilisation force’ – will only further destabilise the region, accelerating the realignment of America’s Arab partners.
On the other hand, if the enormous pressure brought to bear on Netanyahu does somehow bring a formal end to the war, Gaza will remain an open sore. Thousands of young Gazans with nothing to lose will continue to attempt to strike back against Israel in any way they can. Meanwhile, the annexation of the West Bank will continue apace. Nothing will have been solved.
It has also been speculated that in the secret negotiations between Trump and Netanyahu behind closed doors, that Trump may have offered to make a deal with Netanyahu. The latter needs a war in order to stay in power, but it doesn’t have to be the Gaza war. He may have traded an end to the Gaza war for a joint US-Israeli attack against Iran – a war that would draw in the support of the liberal Zionists.
It goes without saying that this would, potentially, have an exponentially more destabilising impact on the region. The last war with Iran exposed the weakness of Israeli air defences that could not sustain a prolonged conflict. And in a renewed conflict, Russia and China would be unable to leave their regional ally to fight alone. The impact on world energy prices and on the whole world economy would be enormously destabilising at a time when the whole world is sliding towards a renewed recession.
Meanwhile, the genocide continues. Gaza starves. Even as negotiations proceed, Gaza is still being bombed. Gaza City has been surrounded by Israel. Through terror, ceaseless shelling, and siege, 800,000 people have been forced to flee to ‘safety’. The 250,000 that remain – those too old, sick or hungry to escape – have been designated ‘terrorists’.
And what is this ‘safety’? Two million humans are being herded into a wasteland smaller than 45 square kilometres, a tent city without hospitals, schools, water, or electricity. There, they starve, or fight for aid at GHF ‘killing fields’, while Israel razes cities; while it funds and arms criminals to ‘divide and rule’; while it bombs ambulances, doctors and journalists. It is a bloody trap.
‘Peace’ or not, imperialism cannot free Palestine. Only the overthrow of the Zionist state and all of its imperialist backers can end this nightmare.
The Italian workers have pointed the way forward! A general strike and a workers’ boycott would bring these criminal regimes to their knees.
